Betting on Bets
Chris Welty, Google Research, USA
Praveen Paritosh, Google Research
Kurt Bollacker, LongNow Foundation
The AI bookies have spent a lot of time and energy collecting scientific bets from AI researchers since the birth of this column three years ago. While we have met with universal approval of the idea of scientific betting we have likewise met with nearly universal silence in our acquisition of bets. We have collected only a very few in this column over the past two years. In our first column we published the “will voice interfaces become the standard” bet, as well as a set of 10 predictions from Eric Horvitz that we proposed as bets awaiting challengers. No challengers have emerged.