The online interactive magazine of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
Interactive AI Magazine
Betting on Bets

Betting on Bets

Apr 19, 2021 | AI Bookie, Columns

Chris Welty, Google Research, USA
Praveen Paritosh, Google Research
Kurt Bollacker, LongNow Foundation

The AI bookies have spent a lot of time and energy collecting scientific bets from AI researchers since the birth of this column three years ago. While we have met with universal approval of the idea of scientific betting we have likewise met with nearly universal silence in our acquisition of bets. We have collected only a very few in this column over the past two years. In our first column we published the “will voice interfaces become the standard” bet, as well as a set of 10 predictions from Eric Horvitz that we proposed as bets awaiting challengers. No challengers have emerged.

Will Machine Learning Outgrow Human Labeling?

Will Machine Learning Outgrow Human Labeling?

May 5, 2020 | AI Bookie, Columns

by Mike Schaekermann, Christopher M. Homan, Lora Aroyo, Praveen Paritosh, Kurt Bollacker, Chris Welty

Some machine learning (ML) rhetoric seems to imply an assumption or expectation that, at some point, machines will outgrow the need for human labeled data. Today’s reliance on such labeling is a sort of dirty little secret of AI, and some view it as a necessary means to a larger end. This bet is an attempt to formalize that attitude into a concrete question, whose answer can be measured over time.